Two crops, two responses - how almonds and pistachios diverged

Part 3 of 10 in a series on the almond and pistachio sectors in California. Download a complete report here and explore the underlying data in a standalone application here.

Almonds and pistachios are grown in many of the same regions of California's Central Valley, face the same water constraints, and overlap in their grower base. But their planting trajectories since 2016 have diverged dramatically. The nature of the divergence tells a more nuanced story than aggregate numbers alone.

As usual we highlight that detecting young orchards is difficult, and they tend to be underrepresented in data. Greater weight should be put on relative figures and trends than on absolute levels for very recent plantings.

The almond story appears to be primarily driven by economics

Almond prices peaked around 2014-2015, and have since experienced a prolonged downturn, especially since 2020 (although this now appears to be reversing). Total almond plantings have collapsed from 136k acres (~55k ha) in 2016 to the low tens of thousands in 2024. The share of those plantings going to white lands has remained stable at roughly 22% through most of this period (with the 2020-2021 exception discussed in our previous post). When almond growers curtailed planting, they seem to have stopped planting everywhere - inside and outside irrigation districts in roughly equal measure. The inside/outside split in isolation does not reveal much about changing water-risk behaviour in almonds, because the dominant signal would seem to be the price-driven planting collapse.

Statewide almond plantings (in acres) and the 2020 white lands spike. Source: Demeter

The pistachio story appears to be primarily a water story

Pistachio prices held up far better than almonds through this period, and total pistachio plantings remained strong at roughly 35k-41k acres per year (~14k-17k ha) from 2020 through 2022, near all-time highs. The composition of that planting shifted, however. The outside-district share dropped from a historical average of around 20% to 14-15% in 2020-2022, and then to under 9% in 2024.

This may be a cleaner signal for observing how the industry is responding to groundwater constraints. Perhaps pistachio growers had the capital and the crop economics to keep planting, but they increasingly chose to do so inside irrigation districts - locations with access to district-managed surface water in addition to their groundwater, rather than relying primarily on groundwater.

The divergence is especially visible in the 2020-2022 window. Both crops maintained high planting volumes. But almond growers directed an unusually high proportion to white lands (the 2020 spike), while pistachio growers were simultaneously pulling away from white lands. The two crops appear to have responded to the same regulatory environment in opposite ways. This would seem especially counterintuitive given pistachios’ reputation for greater tolerance of low-quality groundwater resources.

The 2023-2024 period brought both crops into sharp decline. But even here, the pattern holds. In 2024, almonds maintained their typical ~23% outside-district share, while pistachios dropped to under 9%.

The divergence extends beyond planting. Looking at removals, California almonds crossed the net-negative threshold in 2022 - more acres removed than planted - and the deficit has widened sharply since. Pistachios remain firmly net-positive, with removals running at a fraction of new planting. These are two industries in very different structural positions, and the gap is visible from both directions.

Next in this series: Westlands Water District - from California's biggest planting destination to near-zero

You can download a complete report here.