Regional and state-wide update The statewide index recovered substantially over the past week as average temperatures increased across the Central Valley and the abnormal rain events that had weighed on bloom conditions and the index receded. The increase was particularly strong in the San Joaquin Valley, with the northern counties seeing a 29.4% rise in the index and the southern counties 28.9%. The rise in temperatures and reduction in rain events was especially pronounced

Regional and state-wide update California The statewide index was little changed from prior week at 73.6, as a substantially improved index for the Sacramento Valley offset some of the decline from worsening conditions in the Southern San Joaquin Valley.   Northern San Joaquin No relevant commentary.   Sacramento Valley The Sacramento Valley's index recovered on moderately drier conditions, although Shasta County experienced a significant frost event mitigated by its relative

Part 10 of 10 in a series on the almond and pistachio sectors in California. Download a complete report here and explore the underlying data in a standalone application here . In previous pieces in this series, we documented the scale of California's almond removal wave , which has seen ~450,000 acres (~182k ha) removed between 2014 and 2024, and the shift in planting patterns. Putting the two together orchard by orchard adds a powerful additional perspective to the subject,

The data shows that inside-district almond orchards are being removed at a higher rate than outside-district orchards. The relationship between surface water access and orchard survival is more complex than the standard narrative suggests.

Pistachio removals in California is significantly smaller compared to almonds. The crop remains net-positive, but with one stand-out finding.

California almond acreage is shrinking. In 2023 and 2024, roughly 118k (~47k ha) more acres were removed than planted. Removals equalled ~10% of the bearing base.

The planting activity for almonds and pistachios is becoming more dispersed. Districts and GSAs that individually account for less than 1% of total planting - have been steadily absorbing a larger share.

Districts that have maintained or gained share in almond plantings since 2020 are east-side San Joaquin Valley districts. For pistachios the most visible pattern is the rise of the Tule sub-basin area.

Westlands Water District, on the west side of California's San Joaquin Valley, is the largest agricultural water district in the United States by acreage. For decades, it was one of the most important destinations for new almond and pistachio plantings. That is no longer the case.

The almond story appears to be primarily driven by economics; the pistachio story appears to be primarily a water story

In 2020 roughly 30% of all almond acres planted were outside irrigation districts, compared to a long-run average of about 22%. Pistachio planting in 2020 outside-district share was 19%, close to the historical norm.

California's almond and pistachio sectors are planting fewer acres than at any point in the modern era.

Regional and state-wide update California Today's index is 75.8, down 24.5% from 7 days ago. This was driven by extreme precipitation events considerably above long-term averages with 30.1 mm of precipitation across the production footprint. The average temperature was 12.1 C. There were no significant frost events in the sample period.   Northern San Joaquin Today's index is 66.5, down 31.9% from 7 days ago. This was driven by 40.4 mm of precipitation, 12.5 C of average temp

Regional and state-wide update California With sufficient winter chill accumulated across California's almond footprint and bloom insufficiently far advanced to move the index, DASI remains unchanged at 100.6. 10-year comparison County-level breakdown - Week 22 The Index methodology is available to review here Sign up to receive the bi-weekly headline index publication by email  here . DASI is published every other Monday at 4am PST/12pm GMT. More granular views of the index

Regional and state-wide update California Movement in the DASI was muted as the remaining areas of California's almond growing footprint reached the sufficient threshold for winter chill accumulation for all almond varieties. Accumulation was slower than average in the Sacramento Valley and the Northern San Joaquin Valley compared to the 10-year average. 10-year comparison The Index methodology is available to review here Sign up to receive the bi-weekly headline index public

Regional and state-wide update Sacramento Valley A statewide heavy rain event caused the Sacramento Valley index to rise substantially in mid-October Chill portions did not begin accumulating until 6th November, and did not begin accumulating in a significant way until the middle of the month No chill portions were accumulated in the week of 16th December Northern San Joaquin Valley A statewide heavy rain event caused the Northern San Joaquin Valley index to rise substantiall

How the Growing Degree Days (GDD) help investors understand plant growth, yield potential and climate suitability. Calculating and exploring global GDD accumulations gives us a window into crop suitability, yield potential, and how the current crop year is likely to be shaping up. As such they are an essential part of any toolkit for thesis building, underwriting and monitoring. Plants think in terms of energy, they see in terms of light availability, and to understand each o