After almonds: what happens to former almond ground in California

Part 10 of 10 in a series on the almond and pistachio sectors in California. Download a complete report here and explore the underlying data in a standalone application here.

In previous pieces in this series, we documented the scale of California's almond removal wave, which has seen ~450,000 acres (~182k ha) removed between 2014 and 2024, and the shift in planting patterns. Putting the two together orchard by orchard adds a powerful additional perspective to the subject, showing how land is put to use once an orchard is removed and hinting at the economics that may have driven the removal decision.

For this analysis we have focused on orchards removed between 2016 and 2022, giving at least two growing seasons for replanting to appear in the data. That covers an area of ~292k acres (~118k ha).

Most land stays in production

Of the almond orchards removed in 2016-2022, approximately 97% had some identifiable land cover by 2024. The land is not being abandoned. The subsequent use to which it is put varies considerably.

Combining areas both inside and outside irrigation districts, roughly 49% was replanted to almonds, representing the single largest category. Another 11% went to pistachios, 15% to other permanent crops (principally walnuts, but also citrus, olives, peaches, and others) and 14% to annual crops (alfalfa, corn, sugar beets, and various row crops). About 8% showed as fallow, pasture or semi-agricultural land, and a small fraction converted to urban use.

The inside-outside split

The most interesting pattern emerges from a comparison of behaviour inside vs outside irrigation districts.

Almond-to-pistachio switching is nearly twice as high inside irrigation districts as outside: 12.8% versus 6.8%. In-district growers removing almonds are significantly more likely to replant to pistachios. At the district level, the rates vary enormously: Belridge leads at 41%, with several Kern and Tulare County districts in the 13-20% range.

Conversely, outside-district land is more likely to go into other non-almond, non-pistachio permanent crops - 27% versus 11% inside districts, driven largely by walnuts. The almond-to-almond replanting rate is similar in both cases (49% inside, 48% outside).

The fallow and semi-agricultural rate is higher inside districts (8.2% versus 5.3%), suggesting that some in-district land is being retired from productive use rather than replanted. This is most pronounced in the districts with the highest overall removal rates: Westlands (45% fallow/semi-ag), Berrenda Mesa (58%) and Semitropic (43%).

Overall, outside-district land that had almonds removed was actually more likely to be replanted to some form of permanent crop (82% versus 73% inside districts). Outside-district growers are not abandoning the land - they are replanting permanent crops, but those permanent crops are less likely to be pistachios.

The pistachio switching rate has collapsed

The time series is striking. The almond-to-pistachio switching rate ran at 10-15% through 2016-2021, peaking in years when pistachio planting was at its height. By 2023, it had fallen to 3% inside districts and under 1% outside. By 2024, it was essentially zero.

The almond-to-almond replanting rate shows an even sharper decline: from 49-68% in 2018-2020 down to 15% in 2023 and under 2% in 2024. Some of this reflects timing - parcels removed in late 2023 or 2024 may simply not have been replanted yet, or may not show up in data given the difficulty of detecting young orchards. But the magnitude of the drop suggests something more than lag, and it is possible that the economics that supported replanting almonds with almonds have deteriorated materially.

What this tells us

The replanting data adds a layer to the removal story. The land being freed up by almond removals is not being fallowed. It is overwhelmingly being reused. But the nature of that reuse differs by district status in a way that is consistent with an opportunity cost hypothesis.

The nature of that reuse differs by available water sources. In-district growers are nearly twice as likely to switch to pistachios, with rates varying enormously by district - from over 40% at Belridge to single digits in many Sacramento Valley districts. Outside-district growers tend to replant to almonds or other permanent crops at similar rates, but are less likely to make the jump to pistachios.

You can download a complete report here.