Almond removals: the other side of the planting collapse

Part 7 of 10 in a series on the almond and pistachio sectors in California. Download a complete report here and explore the underlying data in a standalone application here.

The planting data indicates where new trees are going in. The removals data tells us where existing orchards are coming out. Taken together, they paint a far more complete picture of the trajectory of California's almond supply than either dataset alone.

We investigated almond orchard removals from 2014 to 2024. The findings reinforce - and in some cases sharpen - the narratives from our planting series.

California almonds have turned net-negative

In 2022, for the first time in the observable data, more almond acres were removed than planted. The deficit has widened since:

California almonds planted and removed, 2020 - 2024. Source: Demeter

The installed base of California almond acreage is shrinking. In 2023 and 2024 combined, roughly 118k (~47k ha) more acres were removed than planted. At the start of the period, California had ~1.4 million bearing acres (~570k ha). Removals therefore equalled ~10% of the bearing base, although the impact of this on almond supply will have been mitigated to some extent by the maturation of ~195k acres (79k ha) from the 2020 and 2021 plantings into the bearing window.

Removal rates have more than tripled

Annualised removal rates have climbed from roughly 21k acres (~8.5k ha) per year in the 2014-2016 period to 69k-85k (28-34k ha) in 2022-2024. Some acceleration is to be expected as the large cohort planted during the 2004-2008 boom reaches end-of-life, but the scale of the increase suggests that factors beyond simple age-out are at work.

The orchards being removed are getting younger

In 2020-2021, the median age of removed almond orchards was approximately 23 years, consistent with normal end-of-life replacement. The age profile was concentrated in the 21-25 year bracket, with relatively few young trees being pulled.

In 2022-2024, the picture shifted. The median age dropped to around 20 years, and nearly half (47%) of removed acreage was in the 10-20 year bracket - orchards that would normally be in their prime productive years. Roughly 8% of removals were orchards under 10 years old, and may in many cases never have reached full production.

Young removals are happening everywhere

In absolute terms, roughly 31% of young almond removals (under 10 years old) were on land outside irrigation districts. That initially appears disproportionate against the 18-19% outside-district share for removals overall, but it reflects the composition of the standing base. Young orchards are more likely to be located outside districts in the first place (~29% of orchards 5 years old or under are outside irrigation districts, ~25% of those 6-10). When measured as a rate against the standing base, young orchards inside irrigation districts are actually being removed at a slightly higher rate than those outside - consistent with the broader pattern we examine in a companion piece on removal rates by district status.

Westlands: net negative for three straight years

The Westlands story from our planting series is reinforced and amplified by the removals data. In 2022-2024, roughly 32k almond acres (~13k ha) were removed from Westlands, while approximately 1,600 acres (~650 ha) were planted. This equates to a net loss of 30k acres (12k ha).

The trajectory in Westlands shifted from roughly neutral (plantings approximately matching removals in 2016-2018), to modestly positive (2019-2020, when planting still exceeded removals), to heavily net-negative from 2021 onwards. In 2023 alone, roughly 14,700 acres (~6k ha) of almonds were removed from Westlands, which is more than the district has planted in total since 2020.

Every major district is now net-negative for almonds

This trend extends beyond just Westlands. In the period 2022-2024, every major almond irrigation district - Turlock, Merced, Madera, Semitropic, North Kern, Fresno, Eastside, Consolidated - recorded more almond removals than plantings. The deficits vary in scale (Westlands' is by far the largest), but the direction is uniform. The entire California almond footprint appears to be contracting.

What the data shows and what it doesn't

The removals data suggests that the almond industry is not simply in a planting pause, but actively shrinking. The combination of a collapse in new planting, accelerating removals and declining age-at-removal indicates a further-reaching supply contraction than the planting data alone would indicate.

The data does not tell us why individual orchards are being removed. What is observable however is the pattern: it is broad-based, high in absolute terms and increasingly affecting orchards that have not yet reached the end of their normal productive life.

Next in this series: Pistachio removals: low volumes, striking age profile

You can download a complete report here.