Where in the state is capital flowing?

Part 5 of 10 in a series on the almond and pistachio sectors in California. Download a complete report here and explore the underlying data in a standalone application here.

In our previous post, we showed that Westlands Water District - historically the largest single destination for both almond and pistachio plantings - has seen new planting fall dramatically. This raises an obvious question: where has the remaining planting activity gone?

As usual we highlight that detecting young orchards is difficult, and they tend to be underrepresented in data. Greater weight should be put on relative figures than absolute for very recent plantings.

Almonds: Eastside districts gaining share

With total almond planting at historic lows, the shifts are small in absolute numbers. The directional changes are notable, however.

Districts that have maintained or gained share since 2020 include Turlock Irrigation District, Eastside Water District, Merced Irrigation District, and Central California Irrigation District. These are generally east-side San Joaquin Valley districts.

Districts that have seen their share decline alongside Westlands include Semitropic Water Service District (Kern County, reliant on the State Water Project), Fresno Irrigation District and Chowchilla Water District.

In the data for plantings outside irrigation districts, a parallel shift is visible. Sacramento Valley GSAs - Glenn Groundwater Authority and Vina GSA in particular - have gained share at the expense of San Joaquin Valley GSAs. This is consistent with a general northward drift in planting activity, toward basins that are not classified as critically overdrafted under SGMA.

Pistachios: emergence of the Tule sub-basin

The pistachio picture is more striking because overall planting volumes remained high through 2022, so geographical shifts are more reflective of numerous planting decisions taken at meaningful scale.

The most visible pattern is the rise of the Tule sub-basin area. Combined planting across Lower Tule River Irrigation District, Tulare Lake Basin Water Storage District, Tulare Irrigation District, and Pixley Irrigation District has grown from roughly 5-8% of total pistachio planting in the mid-2010s to close to half of all California pistachio planting in 2024.

Tulare Lake Basin Water Storage District alone went from essentially no pistachio planting before 2015 to roughly 1,500-1,800 acres (~600-725ha) per year in 2022-2024, ranking it as one of the largest single-district destinations for new pistachio planting in recent years.

Meanwhile, Semitropic Water Service District - which was the second-largest pistachio district through the 2000s at roughly 9% of all in-district planting - has declined to around 2-3% since 2020.

The broader pattern

Across both crops, planting activity is moving away from certain historically dominant districts - most dramatically, Westlands and Semitropic - and dispersing toward a broader set of destinations. Whether the gaining districts and basins share specific water supply characteristics, or whether they will themselves face tighter constraints in the future, are open questions that the data alone does not answer. What is clear is that the geography of California almond and pistachio planting has shifted materially since SGMA implementation began, and continues to shift.

Next in this series: Increasing dispersion - tracking California planting trends is getting harder

You can download a complete report here.