Demeter forecasts California almond production for the 2026/27 marketing year at 2.694 billion pounds, 0.8% below the 2025 crop. The expected range is 2.602 to 2.785 billion pounds. The total area at bearing age is 1.376 million acres, giving a yield of 1,958 pounds per bearing acre. The figures are as of 21 September 2026.
The most recent forecast and all historical prints are always available on the California Almond Production Forecast page, which also includes methodology notes and additional data.
# The forecast at a glance
| Measure | Value |
|---|---|
| Forecast production, 2026/27 | 2.694 bn lb |
| Expected range | 2.602–2.785 bn lb |
| Production in 2025 (NASS) | 2.715 bn lb |
| Change on 2025 | −0.8% |
| Area at bearing age | 1.376m acres |
| Yield | 1,958 lb per bearing acre |
Figures are published in pounds, on the same basis as the production total published by the United States Department of Agriculture's National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS). The unit switcher on the forecast page converts between kernel and in-shell, in pounds or tonnes.
# Track record
The method has been applied to every season since 2016, the first season for which high-resolution satellite observation of every orchard is available. Each year is forecast out of sample: the model is calibrated without that year, then asked to predict it.
| Year | Area at bearing age (thousand acres, NASS) | Actual, NASS (billion lb) | Forecast (billion lb) | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 970 | 2.140 | 2.173 | +1.5% |
| 2017 | 1,030 | 2.270 | 2.139 | −5.8% |
| 2018 | 1,090 | 2.280 | 2.257 | −1.0% |
| 2019 | 1,180 | 2.560 | 2.509 | −2.0% |
| 2020 | 1,250 | 3.115 | 3.096 | −0.6% |
| 2021 | 1,310 | 2.935 | 3.027 | +3.1% |
| 2022 | 1,350 | 2.580 | 2.706 | +4.9% |
| 2023 | 1,380 | 2.455 | 2.312 | −5.8% |
| 2024 | 1,380 | 2.730 | 2.888 | +5.8% |
| 2025 | 1,400 | 2.715 | 2.818 | +3.8% |
| 2026 | 1,376 | — | 2.694 | — |
The mean absolute error is 88 million pounds, or 3.4%.
These errors are measured at the last print before harvest, with the full growing season observed. Prints issued earlier in the season carry wider uncertainty. Prints issued after harvest incorporate the industry's delivery statistics and converge on the official figure, so their error is smaller than the figure quoted here.
The 2026/27 forecast is published under model v2, the same specification as the track record above.
The forecast draws on the Demeter Almond Season Index (DASI), among numerous other sources. You can register to receive headline DASI publications here.
